US prosecutors are exploring whether some prediction market bets, including on the capture of Nicolás Maduro, violated insider trading and other laws

Federal prosecutors in Manhattan are digging into whether certain big-money bets placed on prediction markets crossed legal lines. The investigation is focused on whether some wagers — including bets tied to the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro — violated insider trading laws and potentially other statutes.

The probe signals a serious escalation in regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets, which have exploded in popularity. The core question: did bettors have access to non-public information before placing their wagers?

Prediction platforms have operated in a legal gray zone for years, but this investigation could set major precedents. If prosecutors find evidence that traders acted on inside knowledge of government operations, it would mark one of the first times insider trading frameworks have been applied to this emerging market category.

The investigation is ongoing. No charges have been filed.