India's IT Export Streak Faces AI Threat — But Not Yet

India's massive IT services industry is staring down a slow-moving bullet. AI's deflationary pressure on software services will eventually hit the sector that has maintained an unbroken 24-year streak of export growth. But the full impact is likely years away from materializing.

That's the core thesis explored in a piece by Manish Singh at India Dispatch, framed as a fictional 2028 memo from short-seller Citrini Research. The premise: running AI models is cheap, but replacing the complex machinery of enterprise IT outsourcing is not a flip-the-switch operation.

The key insight is blunt — electricity costs don't run an enterprise. India's IT giants have deep tentacles in global corporate infrastructure. Ripping that out takes time, even when the economics shift dramatically.

The threat is real. The timeline just isn't as compressed as AI hype merchants suggest.