OpenAI's Big Problem: Tons of Users, Not Much Stickiness
Benedict Evans dissects OpenAI's core vulnerabilities: wide reach but shallow engagement, with rivals closing the gap fast.
OpenAI has a scale problem — just not the kind you'd expect. According to analyst Benedict Evans, the company has amassed a massive user base but struggles with remarkably narrow engagement. People try ChatGPT. They just don't stick around the way platform companies need them to.
Worse, the competitive moat is eroding fast. Incumbents — think Google, Microsoft, Meta — are matching OpenAI's core technology at an uncomfortable pace. The research breakthroughs that once felt like magic are becoming table stakes.
Evans highlights the internal dynamic too. Research leads Jakub and Mark chart long-term direction, and after months of grinding work, breakthroughs emerge. But breakthrough science alone doesn't guarantee a durable business.
The fundamental question isn't whether OpenAI can build impressive models. It's whether impressive models are enough when everyone else is building them too.